Wednesday Analysis - Looking Back on Timbers - Minnesota United

Bill Tuiloma has been exceptional since joining the starting lineup

Now that the season has started, I'm going to take on more of what I like doing after Portland Timbers matches - analysis. But I tend to take a very non-traditional look at matches as well, and am more focused upon the "eye test". I attempted to do this last season, but I didn't like the approach so I'm going back to the drawing board. Starting each week after a Timbers match - and yes, I'm going to start doing this for road matches where I'm able to watch - I want to go over the things I liked, the things I didn't and a 1 sentence evaluation for everyone that appeared in the Timbers match. The evaluations that I've done for my previous outlet got very complex over the years, and I believe I can make it easier. The scores will still run from 1 to 10 with 5 being the benchmark of doing the job credibly, with marks up or down depending on the overall performance.

From my standpoint just watching the Timbers 3 to 2 victory over Minnesota United, there was plenty to like as the team got their first win of 2018 in dramatic fashion. The things I didn't like, however, turned a match that appeared to be a runaway at several points into a nail-biting affair. Minnesota is a much improved group from the one that the Timbers blew out to start the 2017 MLS campaign, but I am openly worried if they would have had a healthy Kevin Molino available, the results could have been decidedly different. MNUFC Coach Adrian Heath didn't appear to have a strategy to deal with the Timbers' "Christmas Tree" formation - 4 defenders, 3 defensive midfielders, 2 attacking midfielders and 1 forward - but his adjustments at the break appeared to throw off Portland as they weren't able to get forward and attack nearly as much as they did in the first 45 minutes. I can't imagine Timbers Coach Gio Savarese sticking with the 4-3-2-1 once David Guzman is back and healthy, as that would mean sitting one of the Timbers young attackers to adjust. A defensive midfield of Guzman, Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes would be incredibly stout, but that then means leaving Andy Polo, Dairon Asprilla or Victor Arboleda (when he's with the first team) on the bench if the attacking trio remains Diego Valeri, Sebastian Blanco and either Fanendo Adi or Samuel Armenteros.

Zarek Valentin was forced to play back more with Powell moving forward

Heath effectively replaced defender Marc Burch, a traditional backline defender, with Carter Manley at halftime. Burch can get forward, and showed on a few occasions he can be an effective crosser of the ball. But Manley is more dynamic in his ability to get forward, and he can cover ground in the middle, so making this update effectively forced the Timbers to leave their backline more at home. Alvas Powell was pouring forward at will for the first 45 minutes, and his 1 goal and 1 assist performance was not only one of his best efforts of his career, but he earned the Allcatel MLS Player of the Week Award for Week 7. In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a member of the North American Soccer Reporters, the group that votes on this honor each week, and Powell was among the players I was considering to put my vote for. However, when Manley came on, the move forced Powell to stay more at home with the backline - and the offense and defense both suffered. Powell isn't a traditional stand up defender and there were plenty of situations where Powell wasn't in sync with the rest of the backline. It's really up to your goalkeeper or backline leader to organize the defense, and honestly, I didn't see any of the group step into that leadership role. Had Minnesota been a bit more efficient with their attack considering the scattered defense late, we might have seen a different result.

Three Things I Liked About The Timbers:

1. First Half Alvas Powell: When Powell is aggressive yet able to provide support to the defense, good things tend to happen. The offense depends upon fullbacks getting forward to provide crosses and an outlet, and of the backs on the roster, Powell fills this role the best right now.

2. Diego Chara: Nearly 90 percent passing accuracy, 5 tackles, 2 fouls won and a chance created, Chara has returned from his injury and resumed his form of solid defensive midfielder. He creates chances, annoy the opposition, creates turnovers and disrupts the other side better than most other players. Having him back has really given the team a big boost.

3. Sebastian Blanco: It's great to see Diego Valeri start to find his scoring form and creativity, but for me, the MVP for early 2018 Timbers is Blanco and we saw vintage Blanco. He led the team in chances created and his versatility is a huge asset - he can attack from all sides and parts of the pitch with either foot. He's also become the emotional leader of the team, and I believe the team feeds off his ferocity.

Jake has good qualities, but he struggled late in this match

Three Things I Didn't Like About The Timbers:

1. Second Half Powell: We saw the good version of Alvas but then we saw a second half where he was forced to defend more and work within the defense. There was too much tentative play in marking for my liking, but that's the rub with Alvas - you get the good along with the bad, sometimes even within the same match.

2. Jake Gleeson's Command Of the Goalbox: Gleeson is one of the most athletic keepers out there, plus he is very good at quick reactions. However, force him to make a decision and it's a crapshoot what might happen. What concerned me in this match was that after conceding goal 1 to Darwin Quintero, Gleeson got very tentative about doing anything and it led to a wild stretch run. The Timbers need a confident and vocal keeper, and I'm wondering if Gleeson really is that guy in the long run. 

3. Leadership Of The Team: I'm convinced Savarese is the right coach for the Timbers, but leadership within the team remains a question. I know that Valeri is the creative leader and Blanco is the emotional leader, but when things get tough on the pitch, who on the side is the leader to rally around? I'd like to think it's Valeri, but the last 25 minutes, I wanted somebody to step in and help ease the frayed edges collectively and it didn't happen. Someone needs to emerge as the rallying point for this group and soon. 

Evaluations:

GK Jake Gleeson (90 minutes): 3. Made saves when necessary, but the timid Gleeson late really struggled to help his side and did just enough to secure victory.

D Zarek Valentin (90 minutes): 5. With Powell forward much of the match, Zarek was flanked back to aid the center backs and did a reasonable job in thwarting various runs.

D Larrys Mabiala (90 minutes): 5. Did reasonably well with distribution and covered marks well, but did have some unforced errors as well. 

D Bill Tuiloma (90 minutes): 6. While responsible for the own goal for Minnesota, I thought Bill was the most stout and organized defender along the backline. 

D Alvas Powell (90 minutes): 4. Up and down Alvas on full display; when he was good, he was very good, but when he was bad, he struggled.

D Marco Farfan (1 minute, brought on for Blanco in 89th minute): 5. Late substitute to reinforce the backline.

M Andy Polo (75 minutes, replaced by Andres Flores at 75th minute): 7. His speed was a huge component of the successful first half for the Timbers, but he was neutralized heavily in the second half.

Chara gonna Chara. And he's very good at it. 

M Andres Flores (15 minutes, brought on for Polo in 75th minute): 5. The Timbers utility player came on late and did a little bit of everything late.

M Diego Chara (90 minutes): 8. Major disruptive force for the Timbers as always.

M Cristhian Paredes (90 minutes): 6. The more I see of Parades, the more impressed I am considering he's just 19 years old and starting his career in MLS.

M Diego Valeri (89 minutes, replaced by Samuel Armenteros in stoppage): 7. His goal in the first half was simply sublime, and I hope to see more of that from the Maestro.

M Sebastian Blanco (89 minutes, replaced by Marco Farfan in 89th minute): 7. Most consistently dangerous player for Portland all evening.

F Fanendo Adi (90 minutes): 6. Nearly tallied a brace for his efforts, but it was the most dangerous we've seen Adi in some time.

F Samuel Armenteros (1 minute, replacing Valeri in stoppage): 5. Late substitute brought on to run down the clock.

Coaching Staff: 5. Impressive to get their first win, but I didn't like second half adjustments to counter Manley's insertion as the Timbers offense lacked precision.

Overall Timbers Score: 6. It wasn't pretty if you look at the full 90, but the first half was impressive enough to move this past the midline mark. 

Snarktography: Priceless. It's always good to see what Jennifer comes up with each week photo wise.

Wednesday Analysis - Looking Back on Timbers v Union

Hi, Sporting KC. The Timbers defense is waiting for you. (K.Kesgard)

I admit that it's still difficult to adjust to being the editor of my own site and realizing that the writing schedule is completely within your control. After years of writing about various matches, I've tried to give myself more leeway when the Portland Timbers travel on the road by limiting my live stream and watching the match as a fan. It has worked so far with the Timbers traveling to Los Angeles and Columbus with me watching from the comfort of my couch, but the match on April 8 versus the Philadelphia Union provided a different experience. One of my dear friends, Travis, had invited friends and family to meet up with him at Cider Riot in SE Portland and watch the Timbers match before he starts a travel odyssey for the next year. Since I know the owner fairly well (we did play soccer together for Cascade Rangers FC - formerly known as Timbers Army Football Club back in the day) and I hadn't seen the pub yet up close, it was a great chance to get out and be social.

The crowd was definitely pro-Timbers in the pub and it was great to catch up with several old friends before Portland faced off against one of the worst teams in the MLS Eastern Conference in the Union. While C.J. Sapong has been a decent goal scorer for the club early, he's not gotten much help from a midfield that has been struggling to adjust to each other. The defense has been even more scattered, putting pressure on the organization to find a way to right the ship, and the Timbers provided a unique challenge. While the Timbers have been getting lots of talk in the early part of the 2017 MLS season with their revamped offense and steadily improving defense, the Timbers had never secured a point while playing the Union in Pennsylvania. As a matter of fact in the 3 games played at the Union's home stadium, the Timbers hadn't even scored a goal there - although they earned 2 points off scoreless draws. Portland had to feel some confidence in having all of their main weapons at the ready, but the Timbers couldn't look past the Union despite the disparity in records or performance.

Darlington Nagbe is pretty good. (J.Kesgard)

As Jennifer and I settled in with a cider taster tray to consume, it was apparent Philadelphia came out to play as they showed early promise with two chances to test Jake Gleeson. While Jake was able to make some early saves, he wasn't able to deal with a header from Union defender Richie Marquez off a corner kick and the Union took a 1 to 0 lead - the first time the Timbers conceded the first goal on the road. This could have been danger, but 6 minutes later, the shot heard around the world courtesy of Darlington Nagbe leveled the score and gave the visitors confidence. This event seemed to settle down the visitors, and Portland was able to add 2 more goals in the second half - one courtesy of Roy Miller off a corner kick and the second from a converted penalty by Fanendo Adi - to secure a 3 to 1 win. While some talk was centered around Adi becoming the all time, all-era overall leader in goals scored with 46 tallies and others chatted about the Timbers equaling their road points earned in 2016 for the whole season in just 3 matches in 2017, plenty of conversation was centered on Nagbe's turn and shoot goal that put him in elite company. With his 32nd minute goal, Nagbe became the first Timbers player ever to score in 7 different seasons with the club. 

Three Things I Liked: (1) Darlington Nagbe came up big, and his celebration was awesome. I've wanted Nagbe to show some killer instinct and be selfish at points in his career, and his goal showed that streak - taking a drop pass from Adi and putting it where the Union couldn't deal with it. His celebration was even better, as I judged it to be more of a "Did You See What I Just Did?" moment. (2) The Timbers appear to have cured their road woes. 6 points off draws in 2016 on the road with no wins; in 2017 in just 3 matches, the Timbers have 2 wins in impressive fashion and a hard fought loss in Columbus for 6 points. Whatever changes Caleb Porter has made in their road approach has paid dividends. (3) The makeshift defense has been playing really well.  Portland was counting upon Liam Ridgewell and Gbenga Arokoyo to be their center back duo for 2017, but Arokoyo's season ending injury and Ridgewell's calf strain have kept Roy Miller and Lawrence Olum in the rotation. Not only have they done well, but they've been supported by Alvas Powell, Vytas, Marco Farfan and Zarek Valentin well.

Three Things I Didn't Like: (1) Will we see more of this from Darlington Nagbe? Nagbe is now in elite company in the Timbers' history books, but of his 7 seasons in Portland, he's scored just 1 goal in 3 of them. The offense is good with him, but it could be elite if he can add to his account on a regular basis. (2) The sluggish start was troublesome. Thankfully, the Timbers overcame it with some impressive second half work, but my hope is the team avoids getting into these holes in the first place. (3) Can the defense keep it up? The group has been better than advertised so far, but Portland now gets these teams in succession - Sporting Kansas City, Vancouver, FC Dallas, San Jose, Atlanta, Montreal and Seattle. There are some potent offenses in this group, so the Timbers backline will need to keep up the form.

Congratulations to you for setting Timbers history.

Evaluations:

Jake Gleeson - 7:  Good saves, no glaring mistakes.
Marco Farfan - 7: Steady, heady effort from the youngster.
Lawrence Olum - 6: The veteran continues to play well and hold up under pressure.
Roy Miller - 8: Solid defense and a goal for his effort. He's been much better than expected, and I think it's been a life saver for this Timbers defense that needs a leader with Ridgy out.
Alvas Powell - 7. Alvas had one of his better efforts of the year. No mistakes and some solid tackles all evening, the Union weren't able to get much going on his side of the pitch.
Diego Chara - 6: Chara was much better in this match and held his own in the midfield.
David Guzman - 7: The midfield ran smoother and I think it was due to Guzman being his ball hawking, distributing self after the initial start.
Darlington Nagbe - 7: Please to keep scoring, thank you. You make this team better when you score regularly to put a threat on the wing.
Diego Valeri - 7: Distributing and visionary, it was unusual not to see Diego join the scoring sheet, but he did earn an assist and started several great runs.
Sebastian Blanco - 6: Kept the Union honest out wide for the afternoon, which helped open things up for the rest of the team.
Fanendo Adi - 8: He made history by becoming the all time leading goal scorer in Timbers history for all eras, but he was dangerous all day. I love seeing him in form.
Darren Mattocks - 5 (Subbed for Blanco in 70th): Great to see Darren late in the match as change of pace. Hopefully the injury that pulled him from the match isn't long term.
Amobi Okugo - 5 (Subbed for Valeri in 81st): With Ben Zemanski dealing with injuries, he's the cover in the defensive midfield for now and he played well in a short run.
Jack Barmby - 5 (Subbed for Adi in 2nd half stoppage): He helped run out the match.
Philadelphia - 3: Started well and fell apart late. This team is a mess.
Timbers - 7: Started slow, but got better and showed off some prowess.

Wednesday Analysis - Looking Back at Timbers v. Revolution

Darlington Nagbe dribbles. But does he shoot? (J.Kesgard)

Back in my days before sabbatical, I was responsible each week for a post about Timbers player evaluations. The original thought behind this was to drive thoughtful comments and discussion about player performance and thus have people visit the site regularly. Admittedly, it worked for a long time, especially when my scoring system was rather harsh in the beginning. I can look back on previous years of evaluations and determined that I made it nearly impossible to score a perfect 10, yet I gave several players a 1 for completely imploding. As I put many times in responses to interested parties, I'm only going off the observations from the match in general and I did my best to confine thoughts to a specific player and match, but that often proved difficult.

As much as soccer has tried to put analysis and statistics together in a way that makes sense, Bruce Arena was more right than he realized in his smug way (my judgement) that the only stat that matters in soccer is the score. In the nearly 10 years I've covered Portland in one capacity or another, I can point to dozens of matches where the numbers would show pure dominance with the exception of the score. Possession, passing completion, shots on goal, turnovers - those are all great numbers for a team to show a plan is working to create chances for a side, but it matters little if those chances don't create actual goals. For me, the most recent match against New England seemed to emphasize this point - the Timbers led in many statistical categories and I thought the team played very well in the first 30 minutes or so to garner a lead, but Portland undid the great work and eventually conceded the leveling goal off a glaring mistake. That's part of the nature of soccer - one of its greatest attributes but also one of the cruelest - is that a single play, a minuscule bounce or a a missed tackle can be the difference between a positive and negative result. While I think that's true in other sports to an extent, it's more prevalent in soccer because of the limited scoring chances, and I feel this is a result that the Timbers will look at and rue giving up points later in the year.

David Guzman drops the ball back to Roy Miller (J.Kesgard)

I'm not saying that to curse the team or throw unnecessary fire on the effort, but in a closely played match, the margin can be quite small and there's a ton of difference in earning 3 full points and gaining confidence at home versus earning 1 for a draw and then questioning the reason for the breakdown. My attempt in this segment and for future Wednesday analysis is to provide 3 things I liked about the Timbers' most recent match, 3 areas for improvement and quick evaluations for those that appeared in the match. Using the 5 point rule as a 5 player does his job on an average basis with nothing bad happening but nothing extraordinary either, I go on the 10 point scale from epicness to dumpster fire of ineptitude. I don't want to belabor performances in other matches either, unless I see a trend that is arching up or down accordingly, the scores are based upon my observations. While I've been at this for many years, I do realize that others will notice things and point them out, and I'm great with discussions as long as they are kept courteous, insightful and with backing facts or opinions to support the case.

Three Things I Liked: (1) Sebastian Blanco is my new favorite Timbers player.  I saw glimpses of what Blanco could add to the offense with his vision and pace during the Timbers preseason matches, but we didn't get a great extended look at Sebastian until the MLS season started. His ability to stay wide and force teams to defend the width of the pitch is impressive, but Blanco has been extremely steady at tracking back to aid his defense regularly. When the midfield wing can track back and help the defensive line and not get in the way, it's a huge asset for a team and Blanco excels at this. (2) Marco Farfan will make Caleb Porter's job very difficult soon, if not already. At 18 years old, I was mostly worried about completing homework, trying to find dates and contemplating my future in college, not chasing around professional athletes for a living.  Farfan is still completing his senior year at Centennial High School, but with Vytas injured and Zarek Valentin struggling slightly, the youngster has played 2 matches in defense and not looked out of place in either affair. For an organization that has struggled to find home grown talent and play them regularly, this is a huge win for Farfan and what T2 is doing for the whole organization. (3) Diego Valeri is playing on a completely different level from everyone else. We are witnessing one of the greats in MLS at the peak of his talent, and I couldn't be happier for him or the team at this point.

Marco Farfan was very good for the Timbers. (J.Kesgard)

Three Things I Didn't Like: (1) Where was Darlington Nagbe? I love Nagbe's game because there are few players that came move from box to box so fluidly and quickly with a soccer ball at their feet than him. But I also feel like he disappears at times, and we saw this version for most of the second half. I am not sure if this was due to being tired (2 home matches in a row with no subs), but it was a troubling trend (2) Why no subs? I've heard over and over about our improved depth and strength in the roster, and we've seen it to fill our side due to injury or absences before the match starts, but for 2 matches in a row, we played our starting 11 for the full match. I get this for Houston somewhat because everything was clicking, but when we were struggling for energy versus the Revs, perhaps a sub might have helped. (3) What Are You Doing, Jake? As a shot blocking goalkeeper, Jake Gleeson is one of the best keepers in MLS bar none. As for the other skills needed to be a top flight goalkeeper, Jake is middling at best. Versus the Crew, he made several questionable decisions to leave his line that contributed to goals for the other side, and the goal for New England was conceded when he failed to catch a shot or block it away from the middle of the goal. I get that the defense didn't help him at points, but at the same time, our keeper needs to be better in those situations.

Evaluations:

Jake Gleeson - 3:  Made several good blocks and punches at points, but distribution was spotty and spilling a ball in front of goal cost the team big time.
Marco Farfan - 9: My man of the match, Marco routinely kept Revolution forward Kei Kamara occupied while moving forward to help the offense. I'm still flabbergasted he's only 18 and hanging with MLS caliber players like it's nothing.
Lawrence Olum - 5: Did his job reasonably well without too many glaring errors.
Roy Miller - 5: I would like to mark him up for some offensive support, but it would be cancelled out by some marking errors and questionable positioning at points.
Alvas Powell - 6. If Alvas could even learn to put a cross in a good spot regularly, his career would skyrocket. Instead, we have a player that makes mistakes but covers them up with recovery speed.
Diego Chara - 4: While I talked about Nagbe being MIA, I thought you could say the same for Chara as well. I didn't notice his influence as much in this match, whether that was due to the Revs neutralizing him or Chara just being out of position, but he was more effective at certain points.

Nagbe was very good at passing, but not much else (J.Kesgard)

David Guzman 6: I liked his game and it would have been awesome for him to net another goal, but I did feel his effectiveness wasn't as good as we've seen in previous matches. Perhaps it was rushed passes or the midweek return after international play, but I thought we saw Guzman at about 70 percent. Still good, but not enough to completely control the midfield.
Darlington Nagbe - 3: See above.
Diego Valeri - 8: His goal was amazing, and he created lots of chances with creativity and pace. We are seeing greatness each time he takes to the pitch, and I'm just waiting to see what more he can do for this team each week.
Sebastian Blanco - 7: Did well for the limited chances that came his way, but did have issues linking passes to  others, but I credit New England with influencing this as much as anything.
Fanendo Adi - 4: Had his chances, but rushed more that a few shots on the day. A patient Adi is a dangerous Adi, and we like it when Fanendo is dangerous.
New England - 7: They played feisty and physical with only getting 2 cautions. Nobody got hurt and they earned a point late off a sloppy play by the Timbers defense. What's not to like from a road match where you get points?
Timbers - 5: Offense was solid in the first half, passive in the second; defense was able to stay organized in the first, and then got out of sync in the second half. The draw was disappointing, but it was likely the most fair result for both sides.
Snarktography - 10. The return of something really awesome? Okay!